India’s border dispute (Part III)

Gilgit-Baltistan (Northern Areas)

Pakistan is selling the hopes and rights of people of Gilgit-Baltistan to China

Gilgit–Baltistan is the Pakistan occupied Indian territory of North-western Kashmir, which was earlier called Northern Areas. A portion of it has been already sold to China in 60s; the remaining large area is being leased to China for a period of 50 years in return for military assistance. The Pakistan’s move is aimed at strengthening its strategic relationship with China amid the irreparable rupture in US-Pakistan relations over the past year. 

All this is happening without any consultation or consent of the locals. Pakistan never gave the status of statehood to the Gilgit-Baltistan; as a result they have no representation in Pakistan parliament. Pakistan does collect some taxes from this financially backward region but never spends a single penny in return in the development of this area. Till today it does not even have a degree college or a full fledged hospital.

It is interesting to note that this region is pre-dominantly Shia, whereas Pakistan is dominantly Sunni. The world knows the relationship between Shia’s and Sunni’s. Iran – Iraq fought 10 year long war on these lines. Geographically Iran is not very far from this region. It is matter of constant worry for Pakistan on the growing Iranian influence in the region, which is also geographically not very far from this region. On top of that the growing demand by India to return it’s lawful land especially the growing world consensus in it’s favor is giving sleepless night to the Pak policy makers including the military establishment.

Gilgit-Baltistan region is facing continuous human rights violations at the behest of the ISI and Pakistan authorities. During the last one year thousands of people from the minority Shia community had been either kidnapped or killed in cold blood. All possible forms of repression are being used. With the recent development of handing over the ancestral land to China would be a gross injustice of magnanimous proportions to the people of Gilgit-Baltistan. All these while Pakistan has been treating them badly, now they would be simply butchered or made bonded slaves and moved out to various industrial belts in mainland China forcefully. Mass migration would happen from mainland China like the invasion of Tibet. Complete demographic balance would be disturbed. In 10 years there would be only chinese speaking people left in the region.

Historically Kashmir has been always territorial part of India. In recent past King of Kashmir voluntarily acceded to the Union of India in 1947 which included the territory of POK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) and Gilgit-Baltistan. But soon after it was captured by Pakistan through treacherous move and due to UN forced ceasefire these territories could not be merged back to its original territory in India. The massacre of innocent civilians in Skardu by the Pak army would always be a shameful chapter in the history of Pakistan. India affectionately still shows this region as part of their country and has been constantly trying to resolve this issue with Pakistan through diplomatic measures. But Pakistan with the indulgence of China is no mood to even discuss about it. Pakistan in fact has a dream of capturing the whole of capturing Kashmir, as a result it fought three battles with India in last seven decades losing all of them and forcing the nation into deeper crisis each time.

In recent years the Chinese had been showing extreme interest to have this territory. It is a easy task to lure Pakistan establishment. Thus China has managed to get an approval of a very long term (50 Years) lease of this territory.  This area is of strategic importance to China. It intends to build it’s military base here especially for two reasons:

-          Open up a land based trading routes to Iran and the Central Asian countries.

-          Quell the birthplace of Xinjiang pro democratic movements (FATA and Gilgit-Baltistan)

Pakistan has been hoping for a long time to develop the Balooch port of Gwadar to become a Naval Base to counter Indian presence and stronghold in the Indian Ocean. China took this opportunity to  build a railroad from Gwadar and connect it with Tibetan Railway. China has also built permanent military barracks for stationing the troops for long time.  

The port is strategically located near the Straits of Hormuz and is vital for China to access the sea for its western provinces. Given is proximity to Iran, the US & India also sees establishment of a naval command in Gwadar as a cause for potential instability in the region. This region is an important link in China’s String of Pearls strategy to gain supremacy in the Indian ocean region thereby containing India. 

But the Balooch nationalists are opposed to the development of the port town as they see it as an attempt by the Pakistan Government to marginalize the local Balooch population. This has given rise to a deadly insurgency in the region with violence being perpetrated by Balooch nationalists, and reprisal abductions and killings by the Pakistani forces.

Since last couple of years China has slowed down it's Gwadar project and focused more on heavily militarizing  Gilgit-Baltistan region region, causing an unnecessary conflict zone in otherwise peaceful territory. India has been protesting this in UN for last couple of years. Dr. Shabir Choudhry, an independent researcher, who led a team of researchers to Gilgit-Baltistan in October 2010. Following his research in Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, Dr. Shabir Choudhry delivered a series of lectures in the UK, addressing the implications of China's increasing presence in Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistani Kashmir, and warning of the likelihood that the region could emerge as a battleground for military confrontation between China and Pakistan on one side and India and the United States on the other.

Chinese Premier Hu Jintao’s gave the following statement on 6^th Dec 2011(In the context of setting up of naval base in Seychelles) - “China is undergoing extended preparations for warfare in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security”. This further confirms the intentions of China.

Recently the Pakistan Northern Light Infantry (NLI) and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) signed an agreement which has dangerous implications in the peace and balance of the region. China has pushed Pakistan to the extent where Pakistan has to transfer the territory of Gilgit-Baltistan to China unconditionally. It is a matter of great concern for the peace loving people of this region and their fate. Right from India, Afghanistan, NATO establishment in Afghanistan, Iran all are equally threatened. This is a paradigm shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy of leaving a long time ally of US and joining hands with China, even at loss of their territorial sovereignty.

Baroness Emma Nicholson, a member of the European Union Parliament, was deputed to prepare a report on Kashmir. She visited Gilgit-Baltistan and Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.  In her report she categorically praised the functioning of democracy in Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, criticized its total absence in Gilgit-Baltistan. Pakistan tried to scuttle this report but the European Parliament passed it by over 400 votes, with only nine votes against it.

The world community especially the United Nation needs to intervene and take steps so that a disaster in making can be stopped. Atleast this region could become United Nations administered territory.

References:

1. Pakistan's Deteriorating Situation, Strained Relations with America: Deliberation on Leasing Gilgit-Baltistan to China for 50 years – A report published in the Urdu-language daily Roznama Bang-e-Sahar, a Gilgit-Baltistan daily on December 13, 2011.

2. An estimated 7,000 to 11,000 soldiers of the People’s Liberation Army in Gilgit-Baltistan - A report in The New York Times, August 2010

3. Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power by Robert Kaplan

India’s border dispute (Part II)

Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (Gulam Kashmir which means “bonded Kashmir”)

A Map of Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir illegally occupied by Pakistan and China

(The Green portion is Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, the red portion is China Occupied Kashmir)

The above map shows 3 regions – Namely POK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir :  78,114 Sq Km, COK #1 (Chinese Occupied Kashmir: 5,248 Sq Km) & COK #2 (Chinese Occupied Kashmir: 52,307 Sq Km) = 135,669 Sq Km in Total Lost from Indian Territorial Land.

Territory under Indian Actual Control

Approximately 45.5% (101,387 km²) as the state of Jammu and Kashmir, includes three main regions:

·         Kashmir Valley

·         Jammu

·         Ladakh

The State of Jammu and Kashmir is divided into 14 districts:

Anantnag, Baramulla, Budgam, Doda, Jammu, Kargil, Kathua, Kupwara, Leh, Pulwama, Poonch, Rajouri, Srinagar, Udhampur.

Pakistan Occupied Kashmir

It is divided up into two main regions:

Pakistan Occupied Kashmir - 250 miles long with width varying from 10 to 40 miles, 13,350 km² (5134 miles²).

Northern Areas - a much larger area, 72,496 km² (27,991 mi²)

Chinese-controlled Kashmir

Aksai Chin - approximately 37,555 km² in size.

A small part, the Trans-Karakoram Tract, of the Northern Areas that was ceded to the People's Republic of China by Pakistan in 1963

Current Situation in POK

·         At least 75 per cent of the population understand that Pakistan is merely exploiting them, without Pakistan having any intention to merge into it. It is just a colony.

·         The POK Prime Minister and President can be pushed around even by junior bureaucrats of Pakistan. POK does not even have a single medical or engineering college till date

·         Pakistan extracts all the natural resources of the region but conveniently forgets to allocate any significant budget for  removing poverty or  uplifting the poor state of the populace.

·         People of POK are neither fully Paksitani citizens nor Indian, they are stuck in between, thus worse than slaves.

·         Human rights violation is rampant

In almost every war with India, Pakistan used soldiers from specific region where it did not bother to have casualties. These hapless youths bore the brunt of superior Indian firepower and considered as one of the reasons of Pakistani disastrous debacle in every war with India including the infamous Kargil war. In Arthashastra Mahamati Chanakya says “You cannot win a war with unwilling soldiers (having bayonets behind their backs instead of in hands.)

This situation can be compared to the tactics used by the Nanda King Mahapadmananda, the clans which he would target to annihilate, he would use them to be the frontline force in any war Magadha used to have, thus Magadha’s own soldiers would be affected the least. China also followed the same strategy in 1962 war with India, they pushed thousands of Tibetans through the border towards the Indian forces most of them without proper ammunition or food or clothing. As if they have come to die…most of the limited armory Indians had, were actually fired on these hapless soldiers from occupied Tibet. They were mostly rounded up from far flung villages mostly peasants, even kids as old as 11 were also not spared.

The above is a ruthless strategy to strip off the youth force of a community so that the community can be further colonized. This concept is even worse than the colonial tactics of the British or the Japanese.

India has been historically showing restraint being a responsible nuclear state knowing that Pakistan harbors numerous recruitment and training camps in Pakistan for carrying out Jehadi activities in India. Indian parliament had once seriously considered the possibility of hot pursuit in line with the use of drones by US in the Norther Areas bordering Afghanistan. History would speak for itself on the inaction of the Indian government on such sensitive issues.

The map of Indo-Pak border

In the above map, the red ones are the recruitment camps and the yellow one’s are the final assault camps in the Pakistan side of the Indian border.

To be continued…

Cyber Warfare: The upcoming threat to a Nation’s Security and what can done to deal with it

What is a Cyber War ?

Cyber warfare are specialized units consisting of computer experts mostly sponsored by states who using computers to attack(hack) or defend other computers or networks through electronic means.

Usually highly skilled hackers and network experts who have adept knowledge of software programming and intricacies of computer networks are the suitable candidates for this kind of army.

Many consider cyber  warfare  as  a  viable  asymmetric  strategy  when  facing  technologically  superior adversaries.

C4I2 [command, control, communications,  computer,  information,  and  interoperability] infrastructure;  and  mobility.”

Both Mahamati Chanakya ( An Ancient Strategy genius) as well as Sun Tzu (An ancient Chinese war strategist) opined “Making the enemy surrender without battle is the best war strategy where after the war the booty is the highest, since nothing is destroyed.” 

The real purpose of cyber warfare is to “force the enemy side to regard our goal as their goal,”  and  to  “force  the opponent  to  give up the will to resist and end  the  confrontation and  stop fighting  by  attacking  an  enemy’s  perception  and  belief  via  information  energy.

A lot of activity in this domain is seen among the Chinese Armed Forces establishment, they call it Acupuncture warfare which has been defined as “paralyzing the enemy by attacking the weak link of his command, control, communications and information as if hitting his acupuncture point in kung fu combat.”

Typically cyber warfare strategy has three major components - Surveillance, Attack and Defense.

Surveillance can be by Network or Electromagnetic. This helps to collect information  on  potential  targets  and  develop  an  attack  plan  against  critical  infrastructure.

Attack of critical computer information is to disrupt, sabotage and destroy information in enemy  computer  network  systems  using  specialized  equipment,  software  or  firepower.

Defense  refers  to  prevention  of  enemy  surveillance  and  attack  options  against  own computer  systems and networks.

Key to Cyber Warfare

-          A well defined doctrine

-          An Impressive budget to Implement this doctrine

-          A well connected Polity, Military Establishment and Academia

-          A systematic training program for selected personnel

-          A Strong R & D cell to constantly update the technology

-          An aggressive effort to continuously pry into other’s domains

Some popular Cyber warfare strategies (8 fold)

-          Planting information mines for mass disruption

-          Conducting information reconnaissance for Information spying

-          Modifying network data for misdirecting information

-          Mass Release of  Intended information  bombs for spreading propaganda information

-          Dumping information  garbage for Jamming networks

-          Decoy information  deception

-          Cloning  information

-          Establishing network spy stations.

Three areas of Vulnerabilities

-          Critical Infrastructure

-          Economic and Financial

-          Military and National Security

Recent Cyber Attack References
-          The biggest known attack so far is a Joint US-Israel strike on Iranian Nuclear Enrichment capacity, which had an impact of close to two years in the Iranian nuclear enrichment centrifuges. Some although dispute this claim. The malwares were developed under a project called Olympic Games – Stuxnet / Flame

-         

      During the peacekeeping days in Kosovo, NATO and Serbian hackers attacked each other attempting to control each other’s networked electronic resources. The same occurred in other parts of the world as well during height of tension.

How popular is it globally, is it turning into a Cyber War Arms Race?

US and Russia is believed to be the leading nations in the world to possess explicit cyber-warfare capability, but there are other close to two dozen countries who have a cyber command as a cost-effective deterrent against external threats. It has indeed taken shape of an arms race.

IN US itself, more than 10,000 people work in the Cyber Command. Various national cyber commands have been routinely invading into foreign computer systems to collect intelligence, as do the normal intelligence agencies. However, these operations have involved passive information collection, not sabotage. 

More provocatively, a cyber spy may leave behind a dormant piece of malware, to signal a warning to the targeted country or institution, or to create offensive options in the future.

What could be the implications, when a country cyber attacks another country? Can it escalate into a global catastrophe?

In personal or smaller scale it can do the following:

-          Invade the host computer, record key strokes, record all voice and video traffic to and from the computer

-          Take control of all data in the computer and alter data or send it to selective destination

The medium scale catastrophe could be as follows:
-          Total chaos in traffic systems especially in metro cities
-        Shutdown of power plants, substations
-          Slamming of trains in railways and aircrafts in air or in airports due to wrong signaling killing thousands of people
-          Jamming of Satellite based Television, Telephone and Mobile Networks
-         Sudden opening up of the Dam Sluice gates would wash away villages, towns and cities
-         Creating choke points in gas networks would create fire and explosion anywhere in the network – streets, homes etc
-          Publication of obscene, unlawful, politically sensitive material in the mass media creating social disturbances
-          Destruction or alteration of bank accounts or even national treasury records
-          Alteration of any kinds of electronic data of national or international significance
-          Giving wrong meteorological data to users
-          All major systems would collapse causing a social unrest in limited region or global scale

There has been quarters claiming Presidents Clinton and Bush manipulated data and drained bank accounts whose balances supported Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein, to which reportedly both declined any involvement.

It can indeed turn into a global catastrophe considering there are 10,000+ Nuclear warheads  dotted around the world, which are controlled through networks, any virus or malware taking control of any one system would start a global nuclear war, bringing an end to the blue planet which we call it our home.

Bottom-line the advanced economies where technological dependence is more would be affected the most; the poorer nations who are in semi automatic or manual mode would have considerably lower effects. US would be one of the worst hit.

What can be done to enhance a country’s cyber security?

 Constant Technological Upgrade – No complacence policy

-          Eternal Vigilance – There is no wall built on this planet which cannot be breached

-          Educate Users with Administrative Authority about actions which can compromise overall security – This is one of the prime reasons of security breach, add as much safeguards possible

-          A system of early warning – Somehow detect the vulnerability before intruders find it, which means try to cyber attack your own establishment on a regular basis

-          Innovation is something which has no barrier, it is a matter of chance meeting the genius, thus wherever there is any innovative technology available buy, borrow or get it somehow.

-          Build strong bridge between amateur community, students and industry in finding innovative solutions towards security breaches.

-          In most cases when a worm or virus infection starts it spreads at lightning speed, thus where possible  need to have manual overrides to automatic systems, sometimes this helps to check the rate of spread or even stop spread.

-          GOOD LUCK J

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What is the need of Armed Forces in first place

Dedicated to all those MEN IN UNIFORM (Armed Forces including Paramilitary, Police and Intelligence) who are sacrificing their TODAY for our bright TOMORROW……

(Below is a dialogue between Emperor Chandragupta Maurya the Great and Mahamati Chanakya)

Chandragupta Maurya had the mightiest Army 2300 years ago....the gigantic size consisted of 30,000 Cavalry, 12,000 War Elephants, and 600,000 Infantry. And historians opine that they were one of the best paid and psychologically happiest armed forces in the world. One can understand the huge effort and expense even in those days, which must have been spent to maintain such a gigantic force.

The Mauryan Army had a very complex but extremely effective structure. They had 4 types of troops- elephant (gaja), chariot (ratha), cavalry (turanga), and infantry (pada).

The Army was broken into many units. The smallest unit was called a patti, and had 1 chariot, 1 elephant, 3 cavalry and 5 infantry. The elephant and chariot would typically be in the center with the cavalry and infantry surrounding them. Three Patti s made up a Sena Mukha and three Sena Mukha s made up a Gulma. Other divisions were the Gana, Vaahini, Pratana, Chamu and Ani Kini, each of which was thrice as big as the preceding one. The Akshauhini was composed of ten Ani Kini s and was considered as the largest unit in the Army.

Once looking at the expenses on the forces, Emperor Chandragupta wanted to drastically cut down his forces since for a long time no one attacked the Mighty Mauryan Empire, so maintaining the gigantic forces is just wastage of the resources of the State Exchequer, which could have been used for other developmental work. He asked his mentor Mahamati Chanakya about his idea, to which his mentor replied in the following lines. This is such a treatise that is the summary of all policies of Statecraft for time immemorial.

The Mauryan soldier neither enriches the Royal Treasuries nor fill the Royal Granaries, NEITHER he does any of the following....

-      He does not himself carry out trade and commerce nor produce scholars, thinkers, littérateurs, artistes, artisans, sculptors, architects, craftsmen, doctors and administrators.

-      He does not himself build roads and ramparts nor dig wells and reservoirs.

-      He does not himself write poetry and plays, paint or sculpt, nor delve in metaphysics, arts and sciences.

-      He does not do any of this directly as he is neither gifted, trained nor mandated to do so.

But he DOES something which silently helps the whole of the kingdom to run in order, below is something which happens because of the strong Mauryan Armed Forces:

- The tax, tribute and revenue collectors travel far and wide unharmed and return safely;

- The farmer tills, grows, harvests, stores and markets his produce unafraid of pillage & plunder;

- The trader, merchant and moneylender function and travel across the length and breadth of the realm unmolested;

- The savant, sculptor, painter, maestro and master create works of art, literature, philosophy, astronomy and astrology in peace;

- The architect designs and builds his Vaastus without tension;

- The tutor (‘acharya’), the mentor (‘guru’) and the priest (‘purohit’) teach and preach in tranquility;

- The sages (‘rishis, munis, and tapaswees’) meditate and undertake penance in wordless silence;

- The doctor (‘vaidyaraja’) tends to the ill and the infirm well, adds to the pharmacopoeia, discovers new herbs and invents new medical formulations undisturbed;

- The mason, the bricklayer, the artisan, the weaver, the tailor, the jeweler, the potter, the carpenter, the cobbler, the cowherd (‘gopaala’) and the smith work unhindered;

- The mother, wife and governess go about their chores and bring up children in harmony and tranquility;

- The aged and the disabled are well taken care of, tended to and are able to fade away gracefully and with dignity; cattle graze freely without being lifted or harmed by miscreants.

Thus Mahamati Chanakya's sincere advise to the mighty Emperor Chandragupta Maurya the Great was: 

“What you see as Mauryan success today is nothing but the impact of the military might, the day this might withers, the kingdom would wither away as well”

In addition to that if ever the Mauryan soldier suffers, that would call for a doom for the Great Mauryan Empire, so beware.

"If ever things come to an extent when, on a given day, the Mauryan soldier has to LOOK BACK over his shoulder (Simha Awalokana) prompted by even a single worry about his and his family's material, physical  and social well being, it should cause you and your  Council the greatest concern and distress. I advise you to take instant note and act with utmost urgency to address the soldier's anxiety. It is my bounden duty to assure you, My Lord that the day when the Mauryan soldier has to demand his dues or, worse, plead for them, will neither have arrived overnight nor in vain. It will also bode ill for Magadha. For then, on that day, you, My Lord, you will have lost all moral sanction to be King! It will also be the beginning of the end of the Mauryan Empire!" 

Source:

-      - Kautilya Arthashastra

-      - Bratrihari Niti Shataka

-      - Excerpts from Kautilya  Arthashastra  by Air Marshal SG Inamdar